
It happens every year, or at least it seems that way.
In 2006, Peachtree Ridge entered the playoffs as a No. 4 seed and ended up earning a share of the Class AAAAA state championship.
Last season, Flowery Branch took to the road as a No. 3 seed and stunned state powers week after week on their way to the school's first appearance in the title game.
And chances are, right now some overlooked team (or two) is circling its proverbial wagons for one of those "us-against-the-world" runs through the postseason.
Next week, when the final AP poll of the regular season is announced, we'll breakdown the playoffs and make some predictions. This week, we'll take a look at some of the potential bracket busters.
Here's the AP poll. Below are my votes and notes.
Sound off if there's somebody we're overlooking.
Class A
Rank, team, previous vote
1. Wesleyan (1)
2. Savannah Christian (2)
3. Lincoln County (3)
4. Twiggs County (5)
5. Holy Innocents' (6)
6. Emanuel County Institute (7)
7. Wilkinson County (4)
8. Greeville (9)
9. Johnson County (8)
10. Miller County (10)
SLEEPER: Commerce. You won't find the Tigers in anybody's top 10, thanks to a 5-4 record. But this could be the best 4-loss team in Class A, and it's already proven it can go head-to-head with some of the best in the state.
The Tigers took early season losses to Jefferson (No. 7 in Class AA) and Franklin County (a AAA playoff team). Their only losses to Class A teams came against Wesleyan and Lincoln County, and Commerce led in the second half of both games.
They'd have to be considered a long-shot (at best) to win state, but the bracket is set up well for the Tigers to get into the quarterfinals. After that, all it takes is one team looking past their four-loss opponent and all of the sudden, Commerce is back in the final four.
Class AA
1. Calhoun (1)
2. Fitzgerald (2)
3. Buford (3)
4. Jefferson County (4)
5. Jefferson (5)
6. Lovett (6)
7. Charlton County (7)
8. Thomasville (8)
9. Swainsboro (-)
10. Chattooga (9)
SLEEPER: Brooks County. The road the Trojans must travel to get back to the semifinals won't be easy. As the No. 3 seed from 1-AA, Brooks County could be playing at Putnam, Charlton County and Lovett in consecutive weeks.
Assuming the Trojans can get past Putnam, Charlton would likely be considered the favorite in Round 2, but it's a winnable matchup for Brooks County. The Trojans have played solid defense this season, and have yet to yield more than 21 points in a game. Meanwhile, Charlton County has been explosive on offense, but has given up more than 21 in five of its nine games.
Lovett will likely be the odds-on favorite to reach the semifinals from this quadrant of the bracket, and the Lions have the talent and playoff experience to get there. But they're not so far ahead of Brooks County that an upset would be shocking.
Class AAA
1. Gainesville (1)
2. Carver-Columbus (2)
3. Peach County (3)
4. St. Pius X (4)
5. Baldwin (7)
6. Jackson (8)
7. Carrollton (9)
8. Washington County (5)
9. LaGrange (6)
10. North Hall (10)
SLEEPER: Creekview. Watch out for the Grizzlies. They've scored 42 points or more in five straight games since losing to North Hall and any team that can score like that has the potential to be dangerous in the postseason.
I've got them entering the playoffs as 7-AAA's No. 3 seed again this year. If so, they could end up in the "easiest" quadrant.
If I'm figuring right, St. Pius and Baldwin will occupy one quarter of the bracket, Gainesville and Peach County will share space in another, and Carver-Columbus and Carrollton will stand in each other's way.
For the No. 3 seed from 7-AAA, the highest-ranked team in the way could be No. 6 Jackson. In that case, Gainesville could be better served if it lost this weekend to Flowery Branch, thereby avoiding Peach County's and Carver-Columbus's side of the bracket.
Class AAAA
1. Griffin (2)
2. Southwest DeKalb (3)
3. North Clayton (4)
4. Hiram (9)
5. Marist (5)
6. Sandy Creek (7)
7. Thomas County Central (10)
8. Westside-Macon (1)
9. Apalachee (8)
10. Mount Zion (-)
SLEEPER: Mount Zion. The Bulldogs are already done with their regular season and gearing up to take on Westside-Macon in the first round.
Westside, as one of the state's top 2 teams for much of the season, would be expected to win, but with an extra week of preparation working in Mount Zion's favor, an upset is believable.
The Bulldogs lost to region rivals Griffin and North Clayton early, but have won five straight since. If they're able to survive the first round, a date with Sandy Creek in the quarterfinals is a distinct possibility.
Class AAAAA
1. Grayson (2)
2. Lowndes (3)
3. Stephenson (4)
4. North Gwinnett (5)
5. Newnan (6)
6. Northside-Warner Robins (1)
7. ML King Jr. (7)
8. Camden County (8)
9. McEachern (9)
10. Peachtree Ridge (10)
SLEEPER: Lassiter. Ok, so it's tough to call a region champ a sleeper, and Lassitter can take the 6-AAAAA crown with a win over Roswell this week. But AAAAA is brutal this year, and most teams are gonna get dogfights from the second round on.
Lassiter, which is unbeaten and boasting one of the state's most prolific passing attacks, will have the good fortune of avoiding the state's elite teams until the quarterfinals...if it can beat Roswell this week. A loss gives Lassiter the No. 2 seed and likely meeting with No. 1 Grayson in the second round.
Brent, could you please explain to me how you can have Flowery Branch as the 3rd seed? I'm figuring you have penciled them in as loosing to Gainesville. The reason why i'm saying this is Creekview (depending it take care of business on their side) will have a 5-1 record and so will Flowery Branch in the subregion and If Creekview won the head to head match-up and has the better record in Region, how can Flowery Branch be seeded higher than Creekview?
Thanks, ecloy. Fixed.
The way it looks like the bracket is shaping up, the No. 3 seed is the place to be for 7-AAA teams.
Of course, you'll have to go on the road, but you'll avoid the teams most have pegged as the frontrunners for the state championship.